Category : Political Science
Editor : Penguin
ISBN : 9781101595954
Type : PDF, Epub and Kindle
Language : en
Views : 544
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UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

Category : Political Science
Editor : Penguin
ISBN : 9780143125082
Type : PDF, Epub and Kindle
Language : en
Views : 576
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UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER "One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

Category : Comics & Graphic Novels
Editor : Dark Horse Comics
ISBN : 9781630089658
Type : PDF, Epub and Kindle
Language : en
Views : 96
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A film director is dying of cancer. His greatest film would have told the story of a European village as the last hour of 999 AD approached—bringing Armageddon. Now that story will never be told. But he’s still working it out in his head, making a film that no one will ever see.

Category : Science
Editor : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN : 9780470024126
Type : PDF, Epub and Kindle
Language : en
Views : 270
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Random signals and noise are present in many engineering systems and networks. Signal processing techniques allow engineers to distinguish between useful signals in audio, video or communication equipment, and interference, which disturbs the desired signal. With a strong mathematical grounding, this text provides a clear introduction to the fundamentals of stochastic processes and their practical applications to random signals and noise. With worked examples, problems, and detailed appendices, Introduction to Random Signals and Noise gives the reader the knowledge to design optimum systems for effectively coping with unwanted signals. Key features: Considers a wide range of signals and noise, including analogue, discrete-time and bandpass signals in both time and frequency domains. Analyses the basics of digital signal detection using matched filtering, signal space representation and correlation receiver. Examines optimal filtering methods and their consequences. Presents a detailed discussion of the topic of Poisson processes and shot noise. An excellent resource for professional engineers developing communication systems, semiconductor devices, and audio and video equipment, this book is also ideal for senior undergraduate and graduate students in Electronic and Electrical Engineering.

Category : Fiction
Editor : Solaris
ISBN : 1786186446
Type : PDF, Epub and Kindle
Language : en
Views : 352
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A beautiful new edition of Moreno-Garcia's stunning debut, featuring an illustrated cover by legendary artist Jim Tierney Mexico City, 1988. Long before iTunes or MP3s, you said "I love you" with a mixtape. Meche, awkward and fifteen, discovers how to cast spells using music, and with her friends Sebastian and Daniela will piece together their broken families, and even find love... Two decades after abandoning the metropolis, Meche returns for her estranged father's funeral, reviving memories from her childhood she thought she buried a long time ago. What really happened back then? Is there any magic left?

Category : Science
Editor : Springer Nature
ISBN : 9783030749132
Type : PDF, Epub and Kindle
Language : en
Views : 340
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This textbook introduces methods of geoscientific data acquisition using MATLAB in combination with inexpensive data acquisition hardware such as sensors in smartphones, sensors that come with the LEGO MINDSTORMS set, webcams with stereo microphones, and affordable spectral and thermal cameras. The text includes 35 exercises in data acquisition, such as using a smartphone to acquire stereo images of rock specimens from which to calculate point clouds, using visible and near-infrared spectral cameras to classify the minerals in rocks, using thermal cameras to differentiate between different types of surface such as between soil and vegetation, localizing a sound source using travel time differences between pairs of microphones to localize a sound source, quantifying the total harmonic distortion and signal-to-noise ratio of acoustic and elastic signals, acquiring and streaming meteorological data using application programming interfaces, wireless networks, and internet of things platforms, determining the spatial resolution of ultrasonic and optical sensors, and detecting magnetic anomalies using a smartphone magnetometer mounted on a LEGO MINDSTORMS scanner. The book’s electronic supplementary material (available online through Springer Link) contains recipes that include all the MATLAB commands featured in the book, the example data, the LEGO construction plans, photos and videos of the measurement procedures.

Category : Fiction
Editor : Harper Collins
ISBN : 0380792923
Type : PDF, Epub and Kindle
Language : en
Views : 400
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Jack Potter puts computer cryptography to work for the highest bidder: sometimes for private corporations, sometimes for the government. Sometimes the work is legal; if not, Jack simply raises his price. But one day, Jack discovers something cloaked in the hiss of background radiation streaming past the Earth from deep space: a message from an alien civilization. One that's eager to do business with humanity -- and its representative. Before he knows it, Jack has entered into a partnership that will open a Pandora's Box of potential profit and loss. The governments, the multinationals, and mysterious players more powerful still, all want a piece of the action -- and they're willing to kill, even wage war, to get it. Now Jack is entangled shifting web of deceit and intrigue in which no one, not even his closest friends, can be trusted. For Earth's cloak-and-dagger business practices are writ large in the heavens...and hostile takeovers are just as common across light years as they are across boardroom tables.

Category : Technology & Engineering
Editor : CRC Press
ISBN : 9781420007770
Type : PDF, Epub and Kindle
Language : en
Views : 216
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Understanding the nature of random signals and noise is critically important for detecting signals and for reducing and minimizing the effects of noise in applications such as communications and control systems. Outlining a variety of techniques and explaining when and how to use them, Random Signals and Noise: A Mathematical Introduction focuses on applications and practical problem solving rather than probability theory. A Firm Foundation Before launching into the particulars of random signals and noise, the author outlines the elements of probability that are used throughout the book and includes an appendix on the relevant aspects of linear algebra. He offers a careful treatment of Lagrange multipliers and the Fourier transform, as well as the basics of stochastic processes, estimation, matched filtering, the Wiener-Khinchin theorem and its applications, the Schottky and Nyquist formulas, and physical sources of noise. Practical Tools for Modern Problems Along with these traditional topics, the book includes a chapter devoted to spread spectrum techniques. It also demonstrates the use of MATLAB® for solving complicated problems in a short amount of time while still building a sound knowledge of the underlying principles. A self-contained primer for solving real problems, Random Signals and Noise presents a complete set of tools and offers guidance on their effective application.

Category : Fiction
Editor : Random House
ISBN : 9781448107513
Type : PDF, Epub and Kindle
Language : en
Views : 624
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On a dark, wet London morning in 1857, Chester Ludlow, an American engineer, arrives on the muddy banks of the Isle of Dogs to witness the launch of the largest steamship ever built, Isambard Kingdom Brunel's The Great Eastern. Ludlow, propelled by fierce ambition, is a key member of a small consortium whose ambition is to lay the first transatlantic telegraph cable. He has abandoned his fragile wife, Franny, on their estate in Maine. The couple are still in deep mourning for their daughter who died in a tragic accident, aged only four. The charismatic Ludlow meets a woman who will exert the most powerful influence on his life and work - the beautiful and enigmatic Katerina Lindt. As both Ludlow and Franny's lives start to unravel, they find themselves caught up in a relentless tide of change crashing across both continents and blurring the boundaries between the physical and the spiritual worlds.

Category : Science
Editor : Elsevier
ISBN : 008046775X
Type : PDF, Epub and Kindle
Language : en
Views : 320
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Signal Processing for Neuroscientists introduces analysis techniques primarily aimed at neuroscientists and biomedical engineering students with a reasonable but modest background in mathematics, physics, and computer programming. The focus of this text is on what can be considered the ‘golden trio’ in the signal processing field: averaging, Fourier analysis, and filtering. Techniques such as convolution, correlation, coherence, and wavelet analysis are considered in the context of time and frequency domain analysis. The whole spectrum of signal analysis is covered, ranging from data acquisition to data processing; and from the mathematical background of the analysis to the practical application of processing algorithms. Overall, the approach to the mathematics is informal with a focus on basic understanding of the methods and their interrelationships rather than detailed proofs or derivations. One of the principle goals is to provide the reader with the background required to understand the principles of commercially available analyses software, and to allow him/her to construct his/her own analysis tools in an environment such as MATLAB®. Multiple color illustrations are integrated in the text Includes an introduction to biomedical signals, noise characteristics, and recording techniques Basics and background for more advanced topics can be found in extensive notes and appendices A Companion Website hosts the MATLAB scripts and several data files: http://www.elsevierdirect.com/companion.jsp?ISBN=9780123708670